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Forecasting the benefits from providing an interface between cycling and public transport (NZ)

This research report was published in September 2010 by the New Zealand Transport Agency. The research examines the introduction of secure storage at public transport stations/stops (bike and ride) and racks on board buses, carriages or ferries (bike on board). Cycle-PT enhances and expands public transport patronage by catering to a wider array of users, both those for whom it is too far to walk to public transport as well as those who prefer to use a bicycle as part of their trip.

The research methodology was to examine the types of cycle-PT systems in use around the world and identify relevant examples to inform the likely uptake of cycle-PT in New Zealand. On analysis of various examples, it was decided that North American data from both the United States and Canada was the most applicable to the New Zealand context. This is due to similar mode share for cycling and a similar historical approach to the provision of cycling facilities.

Various initial approaches to the research methodology failed to satisfactorily derive cycle-PT forecasts but the final refined research methodology created a model to forecast cycle-PT demand based on:

A Monte Carlo based simulation was set up to model the range of values of each variable and the resulting number of cycle-PT users. This produced forecasts as a range of values including an average as well as a 95th percentile low and high range. The model will allow practitioners to adjust the forecasts for each examination of cycle-PT demand within the range, according to local context.

The information produced by the forecast models was used to perform an economic evaluation to assess a benefit-to-cost ratio using the NZ Transport Agency’s Economic evaluation manual.

Six significant urban areas within New Zealand were assessed for their potential to integrate cycle-PT into their existing public transport service.

For every area, the benefit-to-cost ratio exceeded 1, especially for cities with higher levels of congestion. The economic analysis indicated that the introduction of either the full cycle-PT option including secure storage, or the bikes on board option alone, would produce favourable economics.

The study also concluded that there would be other benefits and advantages to the general community with the introduction of cycle-PT.

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